The Waterfront Gurus
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When it comes to real estate, especially waterfront real estate, everyone is an expert.
No one has a crystal ball yet everyone has an opinion...that is what makes a "market".
This Report was prepared by WaterFront Jim to provide information for discussion about the single family waterfront real estate market in South Florida, in general, and Fort Lauderdale, in particular. Please note appropriate disclaimers at the end of this report. I don't know the future and no one else does either! All the "Water Front Guru's" who have opinions about the market are invited to participate in this forum. I welcome you to email me your interpretations and opinions of the market and your predictions about the direction it will take in the coming months.
(Data represent Multiple Listed ocean access waterfront properties East of Federal Highway in Ft. Lauderdale)
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Market Report
August Update
Closed Sales Year-to-date>RE1 8 Photo View (MLX)
Closed Sales in August appeared to strengthen in August.
Summary Year-To-Date Closed Sales By Month
| DATE |
#CLOSED |
AVG $ |
MEDIAN $ |
AVG SQ FT |
MED SQ FT |
|
| 2008-01 |
14 |
2,642,857 |
2,047,500 |
512 |
467 |
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| 2008-02 |
8 |
1,446,813 |
1,207,500 |
358 |
379 |
|
| 2008-03 |
16 |
2,107,781 |
1,400,000 |
488 |
500 |
|
| 2008-04 |
13 |
1,951,215 |
1,950,000 |
553 |
437 |
|
| 2008-05 |
17 |
2,202,765 |
1,318,000 |
554 |
478 |
|
| 2008-06 |
16 |
1,669,000 |
1,287,500 |
501 |
463 |
|
| 2008-07 |
16 |
1,393,431 |
1,275,000 |
445 |
399 |
|
| 2008-08 |
14 |
1,797,313 |
1,825,000 |
503 |
489 |
|
| Average |
14.25 |
1,901,397 |
1,538,813 |
489.25 |
451.5 |
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Market Report: First Half 2008
Executive Summary
Comparisons of the First Half 2006, 2007 and 2008 indicate a decrease in the number of Closed Sales in 2008 and a slight decrease in the Average Closed Price. In spite of the seasonal decrease in the number of closed sales, the Average Closed Price decreased by only 2% and increased from the prior six months. In spite of the significant decrease in volume of sales the ability of the market to sustain an average price over $2 million suggests that Sellers are holding firm in their prices. This bodes well for the strength of the waterfront market and suggests that when volume returns to the market that prices will bounce back.
The number of Closed Waterfront Sales in 2007 (165) was slightly more than 2006 (159). Seaonally adjusted Comparisons of 2006 and 2007 are shown below:
Closed Sales Avg Closed Price
1/1/2006- 6/30/2006 97 $2,151,245
7/1/2006-12/31/2006 62 $2,052,379
1/1/2007- 6/30/2007 96 $2,087,949
7/1/2007-12/31/2007 69 $1,951,683
1/1/2008-6/30/2008 84 $2,045,426
Market Report: End of Year 2007
Executive Summary:
What do you want first...the good news or the bad news? Actually what is bad news for Sellers is good news for Buyers...and since Sellers can also be Buyers....it is, therefore, all Good News! 2007 was not as bad as the average Buyer on the street thinks or wishes and it was not as good as the average Seller would have hoped much less dreamed of. In 2008, look for falling interest rates, insurance and gas prices, a weak dollar and reductions in property taxes and local government spending to help our real estate market. If you have a different outlook, please email me and I will be happy to publish it.
The number of Closed Waterfront Sales in 2007 (165) was slightly more than 2006 (159). Seaonally adjusted Comparisons of 2006 and 2007 are shown below:
Closed Sales AvgSqFt Avg Closed Price Avg Cost Per SQ FT
1/1/2006- 6/30/2006 97 3244 $2,151,245 $663.15
7/1/2006-12/31/2006 62 2989 $2,052,379 $686.64
1/1/2007- 6/30/2007 96 3741 $2,087,949 $558.12
7/1/2007-12/31/2007 69 3182 $1,951,683 $613.35
Comparisons of the Second Half of 2006 and 2007 indicate an increase in the number of Closed Sales of 11.3%; a decrease in the Average Closed Price of 4.9%, and; a decrease in the Average Cost Per SQ FT of 10.67%. However, the Average Cost per SQ FT bounced back in the second half after a dramatic drop during the first six months. These are all good signs that the market may be showing some signs of stabilizing following the correction and may be close to a bottom.
Another good sign is the Active Inventory decreased to around 360 in early January 2008 compared to 395 in early January 2007, a decrease of 8.9% The 12 month low was 335 in the second quarter of 2006.
Savvy buyers are taking advantage of this window of opportunity that they have been waiting for. We have weathered the 'Perfect Storm' . Now we are witnessing a decline in interest rates, insurance costs, property taxes, construction costs and hurricane paranoia. No one knows if this is the bottom or if there is more downside. But most agree we are close to the bottom. To be sure, 165 waterfront buyers in East Fort Lauderdale have bet over one-third of a billion dollars on this conclusion.
THE REST OF THE STORY
Don't forget that the East Side Real Estate also consists of the condo market and the non-waterfront home market. In spite of the generous selection of homes and condos for sale and the media spectre of the looming foreclosure market, these two markets had a more healthy year than popular wisdom would have it. The number of non-waterfront home sales was up this year by 50% no doubt reflecting the drop in the prices to a still respectable $365 per square foot and the good selection of inventory. Condos, on the other hand, experienced a decline in the number of condos sold. Oddly, however, there was an increase in the Closed Price per Square Footuld. Go figure! This bears more investigation....it could reflect more higher priced condos in newer buildings coming on the market that are skewing the average prices.
NON WATERFRONT HOMES
2006 Non Waterfront Homes 106 Closed Sales Avg $893,754 ($420.00 per Sq Ft)
2007 Non Waterfront Homes 156 Closed Sales Avg $826.016 ($364.69 per Sq Ft)
CONDOS
Condos Closed 2006 1046 Closed Sales Avg $489,265 ($ Per Sq Ft $444.7)
Condos Closed 2007 887 Closed Sales Avg $511,829 ($ Per Sq Ft $527.49)
YEAR TO DATE Waterfront Closings in Fort Lauderdale East of Federal Highway:
Total Closed Sales Year-to Date 163 (2006 159)
Average Closed Price: $2,032,102 (2006 $2,112,694)
Median Closed Price $1,600,000 (2006 $1,759,000)
Avg DOM (Days on Market) 179 (2006 150)
Avg SP/LP (Sold Price / List Price) 87% (2006 91%)
Avg SP/SQFT (Sold Price/SqFt)
Last 6 months $599
Total 2006 $672
New Closed Sales in November, 2007 9 December, 2007 9
New Pending Sales 18
Current Active Listings 363
August Closings # Avg $ Median $ DOM SP/LP
2005 17 $2,062,901 $1,900, 000 101 92.08
2006 6 $2,914,166 $2,947,500 268 88.37
2007 7 $1,564,164 $1,512,000 248 90.0
September Closings
2005 19 $2,068,526 $1,950,000 94 93.52
2006 15 $2,219,298 $2.025.000 167 86.47
2007 10 $2,826,500 $1,975,000 246 89.0
October Closings
2005 8 $1,456,335 $1,337,500 34 96.33
2006 8 $1,756,068 $1,200,000 119 91.28
2007 17 $2,188,441 $1,400,000 202 87.00
November Closings
2005 7 $3,760,571 $2,800,000 123 76.99
2006 7 $1,560,571 $1,640,000 115 93.90
2007 9 $1,708,889 $1,150,000 167 85.97
December Closings
2005 9 $2,562,166 $2,350,000 176 87.61
2006 9 $1,900,555 $1,260,000 144 85.34
2007 9 $1.026,703 $985,000 115 87.01
January Closings
2006 15 $2,842,000 $1,765,000 155 91.8
2007 3 $2,493,600 $2,700,000 134 92.2
February Closings
2006 14 $1,993,142 $1,762,500 87 92.2%
2007 12 $2,209,750 $1,347,500 130 86.5%
March Closings
2006 23 $2,299,435 $1,900,000 176 92.0%
2007 17 $2,254,044 $2,050,000 153 87.0%
April Closings
2006 12 $2,142,750 $2,100,000 212 90.0%
2007 18 $2,325,056 $1,725,000 214 85.0%
May Closings
2006 25 $2,004,808 $2,025,000 132 90.0
2007 14 $1,850,428 $1,795,000 136 91.0
June Closings
2006 8 $1,793,750 $1,700,000 47 90.0
2007 20 $2,128,240 $2,195,000 190 87.0
July Closings
2006 12 $2,718,833 $2,299,708 155 89.0
2007 14 $2,204,421 $1,976,679 202 90.0
New Pending Sales
Dec 5
Jan 9
Feb 18
Mar 20
Apr 23
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 18
Aug 7
Sep 10
Oct 12
Nov 11
Dec 7
End of Month Pending Sales
Dec 13
Jan 16
Feb 22
Mar 29
Apr 30
May 23
Jun 20
Jul 18
Aug 12
Sep 18
Oct 14
Dec 18
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October 1, 2007- October 31, 2007
Executive Summary:
October made a strong showing, expanding on the turn-around that began in September, after a weak August performance. There were 17 Closed Sales in October, up from 10 in September, and more than twice the number that occurred in the same month in 2005 and 2006. The average price in October was slightly higher that the YTD average of $2,121,002. The active inventory increased from 357 units to 372 after a low of 335 was set
in July.
Year over year comparisons show a decline in the Average Price Per Square Foot of 8.57%;
a drop of 5.5% in the Median Sold Price, and; a decline of 2.5% in the Average Sold Price. . But, for the first time, the number of Units Closed in 2007 (144) caught up and surpassed the number Closed in 2006 (140).
In conclusion, these changes are not as bad as conventional wisdom predicted and exemplify the strength and resilience of Ft. Lauderdale's waterfront market. More buyers are stepping into the market and taking advantage of good values. The choice of inventory
is the best we have seen in a decade. Savvy buyers are taking advantage of this window of opportunity that they have been waiting for. We have weathered the 'Perfect Storm' . Now we are witnessing the subsidence of interest rates, insurance costs, property taxes, construction costs and hurricane paranoia. No one knows if this is the bottom or if there is more downside. But most agree we are close to the bottom. To be sure, 144 waterfront buyers in Fort Lauderdale have bet over one-third of a billion dollars on this conclusion.
YEAR TO DATE Waterfront Closings in Fort Lauderdale East of Federal Highway:
144 vs. 140 in 2006
http://sef.mlxchange.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=65894968&s=SEF&t=SEF
Total Closed Sales Year-to Date 144 (2006 140)
Average Closed Price: $2,121,002 (2006 $2,176,209)
Median Closed Price $1,700,000 (2006 $1,800,000)
DOM (Days on Market) 181 (2006 153)
SP/LP (Sold Price / List Price) 87% (2006 91%)
SP/SQFT (SoldPrice/SqFt) $516 $564
New Closed Sales in October, 2007 17
http://sef.mlxchange.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=902998250&s=SEF&t=SEF
New Pending Sales October, 2007 14
http://sef.mlxchange.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1098587080&s=SEF&t=SEF
New Listings In October, 2007 24
http://sef.mlxchange.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=385199175&s=SEF&t=SEF
Current Active Listings 10/01/2007 372 vs 357 9/1/2007
http://sef.mlxchange.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=1216485814&s=SEF&t=SEF
August Closings # Avg $ Median $ DOM SP/LP Avg$ SP/SQFT
2005 17 $2,062,901 $1,900, 000 101 92.08
2006 6 $2,914,166 $2,947,500 268 88.37
2007 7 $1,564,164 $1,512,000 248 90.0
September Closings
2005 19 $2,068,526 $1,950,000 94 93.52
2006 15 $2,219,298 $2.025.000 167 86.47
2007 10 $2,826,500 $1,975,000 246 89.0 $503
October Closings
2005 8 $1,456,335 $1,337,500 34 96.33
2006 8 $1,756,068 $1,200,000 119 91.28
2007 17 $2,188,441 $1,400,000 202 87.00
November Closings
2005 7 $3,760,571 $2,800,000 123 76.99
2006 7 $1,560,571 $1,640,000 115 93.90
December Closings
2005 9 $2,562,166 $2,350,000 176 87.61
2006 9 $1,900,555 $1,260,000 144 85.34
January Closings
2006 15 $2,842,000 $1,765,000 155 91.8
2007 3 $2,493,600 $2,700,000 134 92.2
February Closings
2006 14 $1,993,142 $1,762,500 87 92.2%
2007 12 $2,209,750 $1,347,500 130 86.5%
March Closings
2006 23 $2,299,435 $1,900,000 176 92.0%
2007 17 $2,254,044 $2,050,000 153 87.0%
April Closings
2006 12 $2,142,750 $2,100,000 212 90.0%
2007 18 $2,325,056 $1,725,000 214 85.0%
May Closings
2006 25 $2,004,808 $2,025,000 132 90.0
2007 14 $1,850,428 $1,795,000 136 91.0
June Closings
2006 8 $1,793,750 $1,700,000 47 90.0
2007 20 $2,128,240 $2,195,000 190 87.0
July Closings
2006 12 $2,718,833 $2,299,708 155 89.0
2007 14 $2,204,421 $1,976,679 202 90.0
New Pending Sales
Dec 5
Jan 9
Feb 18
Mar 20
Apr 23
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 18
Aug 7
Sep 10
Oct 12
End of Month Pending Sales
Dec 13
Jan 16
Feb 22
Mar 29
Apr 30
May 23
Jun 20
Jul 18
Aug 12
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